Tunisia was the first country in the Arab world that overthrew a dictator through pure and utter popular will. What started in a relatively unimportant country in Northern Africa as extended has far as Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula. However, the most surprising and striking events are taking place right now in Egypt. The country ruled by Hosni Mubarak is a major player in the region and a firm U.S. ally in the Arab world. It is the first time the Egyptian dictator sees such an extreme opposition to his regime. Thousands of people have taken the streets to protest against the dictator. They don’t respect the curfew imposed by the government, they fight the police, and they tear apart banners of Mubarak. Rage has come to the Nile, and it seems it may be there to stay.
Thousands of unemployed youngsters have taken the streets in Cairo, protesting against Mubarak’s authoritarian regime and the lack of democracy in the country. This is added to the bad economic situation of the average Egyptian citizen and the corruption that reigns in the country, specially among the ruling elite. All these factors are quite similar to the ones that caused the uprising in Tunisia, which ended up with the depostion of Ben Ali.
In spite of these similarities, the Egyptian government has learned somewhat of what happened in Tunisia, as it has denied Internet and mobile phone access to its citizens, thus reducing the impact of the social networks in the revolution and stablishing a North Korean style censorship. Also, it seems that Mubarak has the support of the army, something that Ben Ali didn’t have as in the last years he decided to favor the national security forces instead of the militaries. This will obviously difficult the impact of the demonstrators, but we have seen in the last days that the will of the people should not be underestimated, and even less when wrath and opression are involved.
Some minutes ago President Mubarak announced the formation of a new cabinet but left clear that he would hold on to power. It is to be seen if the Egyptians will be convinced by this smoke curtain, which is nothing more than an attempt to calm the protestors. Nevertheless, no comments where made about the introduction of democratic reforms in the country or of a possible resignation. The great question is the role the army will play in the demonstrations. Should they stand loyal to Mubarak, a bloodbath could follow. The militaries control around 30% of the Egyptian economy and that is why it wouldn’t be surprising if they support the President. However, if they take a neutral stand and abstain to act against the Egyptian people, Mubarak could have his days numbered.
Egypt is on the edge of a dramatic political change. For the first time in modern history, the Egyptian government fears its citizens and not the other way around. The Jasmine Revolution succeeded in Tunisia. Will this uprising have the same result in Egypt?
